Toronto Maple Leafs – A New Reality

February 26 2015, July 1 2015, February 9 2016. If you’re a hard-core Leafs fan you know the significance of these dates. They represent three important mile-posts along the Rebuild Way – the respective dates when David Clarkson, Phil Kessel, and Dion Phaneuf were traded.

Let’s stop and gaze in wonder, for a minute, at that last statement. David Clarkson, Phil Kessel, and Dion Phaneuf were traded.

The new Leafs management team of Brendan Shanahan, Lou Lamoriello, Kyle Dubas, and company have done a fantastic job in ridding the Leafs of three long-term and extremely debilitating cap-hits. They were able to trade the “untradeable” contract of David Clarkson (annual AAV of $5.25 million) and retain zero AAV. They were able to trade the huge contract of Phi Kessel (annual AAV of $8.0 million) and only retain $1.2 million of AAV. Finally, they were able to trade the large contract of Dion Phaneuf (annual AAV of $7.0 million) and retain zero AAV. That’s a combined anchor of $19.05 million of annual AAV removed from around the Leafs neck for at least the next 4 years!

Back in October, just after this season started, on this site there was an article (Time for a Reality Check) which sadly informed Leafs Nation the most likely scenario was that Dion Phaneuf, Tyler Bozak, and Joffrey Lupul would remain Leafs for the duration of their respective contracts. As was alluded to in that article, the trading of the longest and largest of the three contracts without having to retain any AAV should warrant big bonuses for the new Leafs management group!

As he has the largest remaining AAV at $5.25 million, next on the agenda should be finding a new home for Joffrey Lupul. If Lou Lamoriello can pull this off, he should most definitely earn himself a big, fat bonus. Perhaps a percentage of the salary he is able to off-load in the form of a 10% “finders-fee”?

At the current moment, it seems very likely that Tyler Bozak will finish this season as a Toronto Maple Leaf. But what happens at the draft and/or on July 1^st (free-agent day), will most likely determine whether he starts next season as a Leaf.

Let’s take a short stroll down fantasy lane:

1. The hockey Gods are finally kind to the Leafs and allow them to win the Draft Lottery. Bingo, there’s your 1C for the next decade or so – Auston Mathews.
2. Steven Stamkos makes it to free agency and the Leafs have a big enough Brinks truck. Bingo, there’s your 2C for the next 7 years.
3. William Nylander gets the promotion from the Marlies to the Leafs that he has earned. Bingo, there’s your 3C.
4. By default, that makes Nazem Kadri your 4C and pushes Tyler Bozak off the depth chart.

At this point it gets interesting. 

If you’re Leafs management, do you keep Nazem Kadri as your 4C? 

Or do you look to package Nazem Kadri with other player(s) and/or prospect(s) and try to secure a potential top-pairing D-man to play with Morgan Rielly?

In this situation, both of these scenarios make sense:

1. Keep Tyler Bozak for the next two seasons to ably fill the 4C role. 
2. Replace him with a cheaper player currently in the Leafs system or acquired as a cheap UFA signing. 

And we’re back. 

With the trading of Dion Phaneuf, the new reality for the Leafs is very much brighter, but most likely plays out in this very Leafian way:

1. The Leafs finish last overall (30th) and lose all three draft lotteries and pick fourth overall.
2. Steven Stamkos makes it to free agency but chooses to sign with another team.

In this more realistic scenario, William Nylander hopefully becomes your 1C and Nazem Kadri stays slotted in as the 2C. Tyler Bozak stays for the next two seasons as the 3C and a decision can be made from the remainder of the centres in the Leafs system as to who gets to be slotted in as the 4C.

Make no mistake, on February 10th 2016, the new reality for the Leafs became a much brighter future. The fact the Leafs somehow managed to wiggle out from under the worst of the Phaneuf, Lupul, and Bozak contracts during this season should definitely be seen as a major positive. Wiggle out from under another one or two and all the dead wood left over from the Dave Nonis era could finally be gone!

Toronto Maple Leafs - a Plan for the 2016 Trade Deadline

Around this time last year, I wrote an article about what I thought the plan should be for the Leafs heading into the 2015 Trade Deadline. Take a moment to reread that article to refresh your memory or I can summarize it for you. My suggested plan, with only a few exceptions, was to find new teams for everyone on the February 2015 Leafs’ roster over the age of 25.

Applying my age 25 cut-off plan to the Leaf roster back in February 2015 yielded this list:

Table 1

As can be seen, that plan yielded an original list of 16 players. 

Revising that list to keep only the players who played the “right way” (Leo Komarov, Roman Polak, and James Reimer), yielded a list of 13 players:

Table 2

That revised list was further split into two lists – List “A” and “B”:

Table 3

Table 4

As can be seen, List “A” was the pending Unrestricted Free Agents (UFAs) and List “B” was the players with term still left on their contracts.

By the 2015 Trade Deadline, Leafs management had done a great job and had been able to trade 4 of the 6 players on List “A”.

I’m sure the trade market was rigorously explored for the players on List “B” and before the beginning of the 2015/16 season, Leafs management had done a fantastic job and traded 2 of the 3 players who still had extended term left on List “B” – David Clarkson and Phil Kessel. Having to retain salary on the Phil Kessel deal was unfortunate but seemingly necessary to be able to find him a new team.

Unfortunately, there was still a contract left on List “B” which could impact the Leafs when they enter their competitive window – Dion Phaneuf. An argument can be made that he could provide the kind of veteran presence needed by a young defense corps but paying your 5th or 6th D-man $7 million AAV isn’t ideal. Finding a trading partner for Dion without retaining any salary would give the Leafs a lot of future flexibility under the salary cap, something they will need as their youngsters start coming off their ELCs.

Now, applying my same age 25 cut-off plan to the 2015/16 Leafs roster yields these lists:

Table 5

Once again, there are some serviceable players on the above list of 18. Keeping a few of them around could prove useful. They could provide a good example of how to play the "right way", fill out roster spaces, and most importantly, provide ample time for all the youngsters coming in via the draft and/or trades to continue developing in the minors - whether the OHL, AHL, or overseas.

Therefore, from the original list of 18, Leo Komarov and James Van Riemsdyk are definitely keepers. Depending on whether Dion Phaneuf is traded and how much term he wants will determine whether Matt Hunwick and James Reimer respectively are Leafs to start the 2016/17 season.

Looking at the revised list of 18 above, it’s obvious that contract status should once again split the list into two new lists – List “A” and List “B”:

Table 6

Table 7

As can be seen, List “A” are the pending Unrestricted Free Agents (UFAs) and List “B” are the players with term still left on their contracts.

As the players on List “A” are becoming UFAs at the end of this season, it has a time constraint, therefore new teams should be found before the February 29 2016 trade deadline for the following players:

1. Mark Arcobello

2. Brad Boyes

3. Rich Clune

4. Michael Grabner

5  Shawn Matthias

6. P.A. Parenteau

7. Roman Polak

8. James Reimer?

9. Nick Spaling

I am not going to speculate on what the relative value of the above 9 players is and what exactly the return would be for each, there are plenty of other sites doing that, but let's assume that it would most likely be some combination of prospects and/or picks numbering around 4-5.

List “B” has its own constraints, but time is not one of them. Therefore, more time could be taken and/or options explored before new teams should be found for these players:

1. Jonathan Bernier

2. Tyler Bozak

3. Matt Hunwick?

4. Joffrey Lupul

5. Dion Phaneuf

6. Stephane Robidas

7. Daniel Winnick

Again, I am not going to speculate on what the relative value of the above 7 players is and what exactly the return should be for each, but let's assume that it most likely could be some combination of players and/or prospects and/or picks numbering around 3-4.

There it is – a simple plan having a simple first goal - find new homes for the UFA players on List “A”.

After their excellent job last year, it will be interesting to see how successful Leafs management is in implementing my plan leading up to and through Trade Deadline day on February 29th.