Toronto Maple Leafs - Time for a Reality Check

It’s slightly more than half-way through October and even though the season has barely started, there is still a lot of chatter in Leafs Nation about why more of the “rotten core” hasn’t been moved out to make way for the youngsters down with the Marlies.

For those of you who don’t live and breathe Blue & White, or simply have relegated the Leafs to a distant second after the Blue Jays (Let’s Go Blue Jays!), let’s define who comprises this “rotten core”. Most Leafs fans would agree that the “rotten core” is made up of the following players:

1. Tyler Bozak
2. Joffrey Lupul
3. Dion Phaneuf

As the list is only comprised of 3 players, most of Leafs Nation is wondering – if the new management group is so committed to a rebuild, what’s taking them this long to move this “rotten-core” out?

As the business of professional hockey is by no means simple, that means there are no simple answers to that very simple question.

The first obvious answer – at the moment no one wants them!

If that’s not enough of an answer, then we’ll need to look at recent moves by other organizations in the NHL. Starting last year with the high-profile waiving by the Kings of Mike Richards to the A.H.L. and followed up this year by the waiving to the A.H.L. of Andrew MacDonald by the Flyers and Daniel Cleary by the Red Wings, it seems teams are no longer willing to carry what they see as “dead-weight” salaries against the salary cap. Not good news if you’re the Leafs and you’re trying to unload guys being paid $4.2, $5.25, and $7.0 million against the salary cap for the next 3, 3, and 6 years respectively. Yikes!

After the tire fire which ended their 2014/15 season, realistically the best that can be hoped for by the new management team of the Leafs, and Leafs Nation for that matter, is that Mike Babcock will be able to “rehabilitate” the perceived “poor” play of the previously mentioned “rotten-core” and make them tradeable at some point in the future – hopefully later this season at the trade deadline.

Even though the new season is only five games old for the Leafs, the results so far seem promising. Dion Phaneuf is tied for the team lead with 4 points. Tyler Bozak (once) and Joffrey Lupul (twice) have both hit the back of the net, and more importantly, Lupul has managed to stay injury free! If this level of injury luck and offensive production can be maintained until the trade deadline at the end of February 2016, the Leafs might be able to unload two (Bozak & Lupul) of the three as depth players for teams hoping to make a deep push into the playoffs. Similar to the Phil Kessel trade, both of these players have limited no-trade clauses and this could complicate matters somewhat.

Dion Phaneuf will present more of a challenge as he has a relatively high cap hit ($7.0 million) and extended term (6 years) still left on his deal. It’s almost a foregone conclusion that if the Leafs are to trade Phaneuf, they are going to have to take back either a similarly “bad” contract (but hopefully on a shorter term) and/or absorb some of the $7.0 million cap hit. Complicating Phaneuf’s situation is his no-movement clause.

What’s the reality check alluded to in this article’s headline?

Leafs Nation - be prepared for all three of this so-called “rotten-core” to be Maple Leafs for the duration of each of their contract’s term. For Bozak and Lupul, that is two more seasons after this one – a time-frame the Leafs can probably live with as no one is expecting them to be serious contenders before that time. Phaneuf’s term of five more seasons after this one could present a challenge as he is already on the wrong side of 30 and realistically projects to hit rapid decline in his play over the next 3-4 years – a potentially bad time-frame coinciding with when the Leafs are hoping to at least become contenders.

What are the take-aways from this whole “rotten-core” situation?

1. No more over-paying, in either dollars or term, for border-line players.
2. No more no-trade or no-movement clauses.

If the Leafs can somehow manage to wiggle out from under even one of these “rotten-core” contracts during this season, it should definitely be seen as a major positive. Wiggle out from under two or even all three? The new management team will have earned huge bonuses!