Stammergeddon or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Current Maple Leafs Management Group

Wednesday June 29, 2016.

A day of infamy that will live on forever in the minds of Oilers fans (here & here) and Habs fans (here & here).

As Leafs fans we, and I assume you’re a Leafs fan if you‘re on this site and reading this article, managed to escape Wednesday Bloody Wednesday relatively unscathed with only the news that Steven Stamkos had decided to skip heading to Free Agency and resign with his current team – the Tampa Bay Lighting.

After having had time to take the pulse of Leafs nation via reading the thousands of posts at the other various Leafs fan sites, I know some of you are outraged, furious, or mad at Steven Stamkos and his decision but I’m not. Well, maybe a little disappointed.

I’m here to tell you Steven Stamkos’ decision is not the end of the Leafs world as we know it, but a firm affirmation that the current Leafs’ rebuild is in the hands of the best management group in the NHL today – Brendan Shanahan, Lou Lamoriello, and Mike Babcock.

How do I know this?

Simply because I believe that the Shanahan, Lamoriello, and Babcock management group had a plan going into their meeting with Steven Stamkos during the pre-free agency window, and they stuck to it, Gone are the desperation days of the previous Leafs’ management groups who felt they had to bend over backwards and overpay free agents to come home to Toronto.

I firmly believe that the Leafs’ management group met with Steven Stamkos and his camp on Tuesday June 28^th and laid out their plans for how they were going to proceed with the rebuild and what, generally, they were prepared to pay a player of Stamkos caliber to come and be a part of that rebuild. No promising of endless Brinks trucks of cash, or promises that Stamkos would be the #1 Centre for the 7 year term of his contract – just a simple and truthful explanation of their plan to rebuild the Leafs, a fair and reasonable ball-park figure for actual dollars to be paid to Stamkos, and a genuine expression of desire for Stamkos to come home and lead his boyhood team to glory.

Now for whatever reason, Steven Stamkos decided that he wanted to resign with his current team, the Tampa Bay Lightning and, quite frankly, since I have been a proponent of the Leafs NOT pursuing Stamkos for almost a year (here), I am a little relieved that the Leafs did not immediately place themselves back into Cap Hell by taking on a humongous contract.

After we are all done with bathing in the salty tears of Oilers and Habs fans, let us all take a quiet moment to relax and contemplate what John Tavares or Connor McDavid will look like in the brand spanking new Maple Leaf sweaters in a couple of years.

Hey, we can always dream, right?
 

Toronto Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Lottery - The Aftermath

At the conclusion of the 2015/2016 NHL regular season - a season which saw the Toronto Maple Leafs finish 30th overall - there seemed to be a dejected resignation amongst most of Leafs Nation. Even though, by finishing 30th, the Leafs had secured the best odds in the 2016 NHL Draft Lottery of picking 1st overall, somehow the hockey gods would frown on the Leafs once again and the Leafs would lose all three draft lotteries and drop to the 4th overall pick.

During the evening of Saturday April 30, 2016 the relief was palatable within Leafs Nation when the Leafs secured, at a minimum, a top-3 overall draft pick. As the card for the team which would be drafting 3rd overall was revealed, Leafs Nation was in a state of disbelief when it showed the logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets. With the turn of that card, the Leafs would secure no worse than the 2nd overall pick. Could it be coming true? Would the Leafs finally garner the favour of the hockey gods and manage to hold onto the 1st overall pick?  When Bill Daly finally revealed the logo of the team who would draft 1st overall and it was the blue maple leaf, Leafs Nation went absolutely wild - our luck had turned and we were going to be allowed to have something nice for our team, the right to draft Auston Matthews.

In the few days which have passed since that fateful Saturday night, there has been a low rumbling in Leafs Nation that the Leafs should look to trade that 1st overall pick or might not use it to draft Auston Matthews.

In life, we've all been told to never say never, but let me just say:

1. NEVER are the Leafs trading the 2016 1st overall pick
2. NEVER are the Leafs drafting anyone but Auston Matthews with the 2016 1st overall pick

OK, now that we have that piece of business taken care of, let's look at how the Leafs opening night roster for the 2016/2017 season could potentially be affected by the Leafs acquiring the 2016 1st overall pick, drafting Auston Matthews, and signing free-agent defenceman Nikita Zaitsev from the K.H.L.

Here’s a potential opening night roster for the Leafs for the 2016/2017 season:

Table 1

A quick explanation of what the headings in Table 1 mean.

Sh=Shoots (Left or Right), Left=Left Wing/Defence, Yrs=Years left on contract, Sts=Status, Centre=Centre/Goal, Right=Right Wing/Defence. The number in brackets after a player’s name is that player’s age.

Looking at Table 1 above leads to the observation of a couple of different developments.

Changes since the end of the 2015/2016 season

Here’s the Leafs’ roster which ended the 2015/2016 season:

Table 2

Notice there are 9 players whose status (Sts) is UFA or Unrestricted Free Agent. From this list of Unrestricted Free Agents:

1. Mark Arcobello
2. Brad Boyes
3. T.J. Brennan
4. Rich Clune
5. Michael Grabner
6. P.A. Parenteau
7. Ben Smith
8. Alex Stalock
9. Raffi Torres

It is assumed that only Mark Arcobello, T.J. Brennan, Rich Clune, and Ben Smith might return from the above list but only if they agree to be assigned to the Marlies to provide a veteran presence.

The Leafs might want to bring back P.A. Parenteau, but finding a roster spot for him to start the 2016/2017 season could prove challenging, especially if the Leafs decide to start the season with a younger lineup.

Notice there are 12 players whose status (Sts) is RFA or Restricted Free Agent. From this list of Restricted Free Agents:

1. Connor Carrick
2. Sam Carrick
3. Frank Corrado
4. Scott Harrington
5. Peter Holland
6. Nazem Kadri
7. Josh Leivo
8. Martin Marincin
9. Stuart Percy
10. Morgan Rielly
11. Colin Smith
12. Garret Sparks

It is assumed that the Leafs would like to qualify and re-sign everyone on this list and that work has already started with the signing of Nazem Kadri and Morgan Rielly to 6 year contracts.

As Garret Sparks is the only waiver eligible player from the above list of 12 for the upcoming 2016/2017 season, the following players are either going to be traded in the off-season, make the Leafs’ opening night roster, or be placed on waivers for assignment to the Marlies:

1. Connor Carrick
2. Sam Carrick
3. Frank Corrado
4. Scott Harrington
5. Peter Holland
6. Josh Leivo
7. Martin Marincin
8. Stuart Percy
9. Colin Smith

Based on their play in 2015/2016, Connor Carrick, Frank Corrado, Josh Leivo, and Martin Marincin likely make the Leafs’ opening night roster. 

If they are not traded during the off-season, Sam Carrick, Scott Harrington, Peter Holland, Stuart Percy, and Colin Smith will need to have exceptional training camps and make the Leafs opening night roster or risk being placed on waivers.  From this list, Sam Carrick and Colin Smith might clear waivers but most likely Stuart Percy does not, as he is only 22 years old.

The Leafs would likely try to find a spot for Scott Harrington and maybe Peter Holland but unless Matt Hunwick, in the case of Scott Harrington, or one of Colin Greening, Tyler Bozak, Milan Michalek, or Brooks Laich, in the case of Peter Holland, are traded in the off-season the chance either Scott Harrington or Peter Holland are on the Leafs’ opening night roster are rather slim. 

Finally, the Leafs have stated their intention to buy-out the contract of Jared Cowan.

Changes since the NHL 2016 Draft Lottery

A closer look at Table 1 above shows a number of interesting assumptions:

1.      Auston Matthews opens the season with the Leafs

2.      Nikita Zaitsev slots into the top 4 D

3.      Mitch Marner opens the season with the Leafs and now counts towards the 50 SPC limit

4.      Dermott, Nielsen, and Timashov are loaned back to their respective junior teams and do not count toward the 50 SPC limit

5.      Steven Stamkos is not included in this potential 2016/2017 season opening roster

Assuming the roster moves detailed above under the heading “Changes since the end of the 2015/2016 season” transpire as described and Dermott, Nielsen, and Timashov are loaned back to their respective junior teams, even with the addition of Matthews, Marner, and Zaitsev to their NHL lineup, the Leafs will potentially have used only 44 of their 50 SPC slots.  This would leave up to 6 SPC slots available for the Leafs to address some of their needs via trades or free-agent signings.

It is apparent there are a couple of areas where the Leafs depth in prospects is rather shallow.

1.      Goaltending

2.      Right-shot defencemen

Depending on how the 2016 Entry Draft plays out, the Leafs could be very busy participants in the 2016 off-season trade and free-agent markets.

In trying to address their two areas of weakness (Goaltending and Right-shot D-men), there are a few questions which could be asked:

  

1.      Should the Leafs try to land a No. 1 goalie this off-season or wait until next year’s off-season when teams will be scrambling ahead of the expansion draft?

2.      Should the Leafs try to land a potential top-pairing right-shot D-man to play with Morgan Rielly?

3.      Should the Leafs wade into the Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA) market and try to sign Steven Stamkos?

In my opinion, this coming off-season should see the Leafs exploring these markets:

1.      Available No. 1 goalies

2.      Available right-shooting potential top-pairing D-man

Assuming the Leafs choose to pursue a potential No. 1 goalie, they could target any of these names – Ilya Samsonov, Mackenzie Blackwood, Tristan Jarry or if they are looking for a more immediate fix, Frederik Andersen.

If the Leafs decide that Nikita Zaitsev might slot better as a 2^nd pairing defender, they could pursue a right-shooting potential top-pairing D-man to pair with Morgan Rielly. Names being mentioned as potentially available include Tyson Barrie, Sami Vatanen, and Jacob Trouba.

Whichever route they decide to pursue this coming off-season, the Leafs will be well positioned to wheel-and-deal their way to a much different team than the team which ended the 2015/2016 regular season.

Toronto Maple Leafs - 2016 Roster Management

Recently, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet posted online an interesting interview with Leafs' GM Lou Lamoriello(Video).

In the interview, the Leafs GM said that he expected there to be an approximately 50% turnover from the current Leafs roster to the roster that would start the 2016/2017 season.

50% - that’s an extremely ambitious number!

What wasn’t clear from the above interview was whether the Leafs’ GM meant 50% of the Leafs’ active 20-man roster or 50% of the 52 players the Leafs have signed to Standard Players Contracts (SPCs). For the purposes of this article, the assumption will be it’s the players signed to SPCs.

The table below shows these 52 players by position:

Table 1

A quick explanation of what the headings in Table 1 mean.

Sh=Shoots (Left or Right), Left=Left Wing/Defence, Yrs=Years left on contract, Sts=Status, Centre=Centre/Goal, Right=Right Wing/Defence. The number in brackets after a player’s name is that player’s age.

Even though they have signed SPCs, by loaning Dermott, Marner, Nielsen, and Timashov back to their respective Junior teams, the Leafs can actually have 52 players signed to SPCs, but only have 48 of those players count against the 50 SPC limit that each NHL team is allowed.

This is a key “loophole” and will probably be used more and more by the Leafs in the future to both reward but also shelter their prized draft picks.

As they’re on expiring contracts, the first group to be looked at is the Unrestricted Free Agents (UFAs):

1. Mark Arcobello (27)
2. Brad Boyes (33)
3. T.J. Brennan (26)
4. Rich Clune (28)
5. Michael Grabner (28)
6. P.A. Parenteau (32)
7. Ben Smith (27)
8. Alex Stalock (28)
9. Raffi Torres (34)

From this list of 9 it can be discerned that based on their play and how they have been utilized, or not, by the Leafs organization, the following players will most likely be thanked for their service and encouraged to find new teams for next year:

1. Brad Boyes
2. Michael Grabner
3. Alex Stalock
4. Raffi Torres

If all four of these players move on to new teams, that would free up 4 SPC slots.

The Leafs would still need to make decisions concerning these five players:

1. Mark Arcobello
2. T.J. Brennan
3. Rich Clune
4. P.A. Parenteau
5. Ben Smith

Depending on whether they would agree to a team-friendly short-term (1 year?) deal, Ben Smith and P.A. Parenteau might be good players to bring back to fill veteran leadership roles with the Leafs and/or be available at the next trade deadline to trade for prospects and/or draft picks.

If they would be agreeable, Mark Arcobello, T.J. Brennan, and Rich Clune could be good options to bring back to provide needed depth and experience for the Marlies, with the occasional emergency call-up to the Leafs, similar to the roles these players fulfilled this season.

The second group requiring attention would be the Restricted Free Agents (RFAs):

1. Connor Carrick (21)
2. Sam Carrick (24)
3. Frank Corrado (22)
4. Scott Harrington (22)
5. Peter Holland (25)
6. Nazem Kadri (25)
7. Josh Leivo (22)
8. Martin Marincin (24)
9. Stuart Percy (22)
10. Morgan Rielly (21)
11. Colin Smith (22)
12. Garret Sparks (22)

Based on their age and how they were utilized by the Leafs’ organization this past season, it would seem these players will receive a qualifying offer and be resigned by Toronto:

1. Connor Carrick
2. Frank Corrado
3. Scott Harrington
4. Peter Holland
5. Nazem Kadri
6. Josh Leivo
7. Martin Marincin
8. Morgan Rielly
9. Colin Smith
10. Garret Sparks

Even though they are relatively young, it would seem these two players have been passed by other prospects in the Leafs’ system and the Leafs might be prepared to move on from them:

1. Sam Carrick
2. Stuart Percy

If they are not qualified and resigned by the Leafs, that would free up another two SPC slots.

Add the four SPC slots freed up via the UFAs, the two SPC slots freed up via the RFAs, and a SPC slot freed up via the buyout of Jared Cowen and the Leafs might have a total of seven available SPC slots for the 2016/2017 season.

Assuming the Leafs sign the UFAs and RFAs discussed above, their opening day roster for the 2016/2017 season could look like this:

Table 2

A closer look at the above table shows a few interesting developments:

1. It is assumed the Leafs sign defenceman Nikita Zaitsev and he slots into their top 4 D.
2. Mitch Marner starts the season with the Leafs and now counts against the 50 SPC limit.
3. None of the Leafs 2016 draft picks make the Leafs team to start the 2016/2017 season.

Even with the addition of Marner and Zaitsev to their NHL lineup, the Leafs may have potentially used only 43 of their 50 SPC slots.

Assuming the Leafs sign their first round pick from the 2016 draft to a SPC, as they did with Marner in 2015, the Leafs would still have 6 SPC slots available to them for potential trades and free-agent acquisitions.

Looking at the list of players the Leafs have drafted over the past few years, it seems the Leafs will have to make a decision on whether to sign 2 or 3 players to SPCs:

Table 3

Specifically, Tony Cameranesi, Pierre Engvall, and perhaps J.J. Piccinich. J.J. Piccinich is an interesting case as he started out the 2015 season by moving from the NCAA to Junior.

Missing from this list of three is Sam Carrick, who was drafted by the Leafs in 2010. As discussed above, the Leafs may have decided to move on from him as he seems to have been passed by other prospects in the Leafs’ system.

If we look at the potential roster the Leafs could start the 2016/2017 season with:

Table 4.

It is apparent there are a couple of areas where the Leafs depth in prospects is rather shallow.

1. Right-shot defencemen.
2. Goaltending.

Depending on how the 2016 Entry Draft play out, the Leafs could be very busy participants in the 2016 off-season trade and free-agent markets.

For example, the Leafs could try to land a No. 1 goalie. They could also look to swing for the fences, so to speak, and try to land a top-pairing right-shooting D-man to pair with Morgan Rielly. Either scenario would fill a need for the Leafs.

In my opinion, this coming off-season should see the Leafs looking to find a right-shooting potential top-pairing D-man to pair with Morgan Rielly. Names being mentioned out there as potentially available include Tyson Barrie, Sami Vatanen, and Jacob Trouba.

If the Leafs should choose to pursue a potential No. 1 goalie, they could target any of these names – Ilya Samsonov, Mackenzie Blackwood, Tristan Jarry or if they are looking for a more immediate fix, Frederik Andersen.

Whichever way they decide to pursue this coming off-season, the Leafs will be well positioned to wheel-and-deal their way to that 50% roster turnover mentioned by GM Lou Lam Lamoriello.

Toronto Maple Leafs Trade Deadline - The Aftermath

The second Trade Deadline day in the multi-year rebuild of the Toronto Maple Leafs has passed, and what, if anything, has changed?

In a previous article on this site (A Plan for 2016 Trade Deadline), a plan was put forth on how the Leafs could have approached the February 29^th Trade Deadline with an eye to managing and maximizing their assets. In summary, that plan was to create a list with every Leaf player over the age of 25 and subsequently sub-divide that list into two other lists – List “A (UFA’s) and List “B” (non-UFA’s).

As List “A” was the UFA’s, who could walk at the end of the season without the Leafs receiving anything back in compensation, it was obviously time sensitive and required immediate attention.

List “A” had the following nine players on it:

1.       Mark Arcobello

2.       Brad Boyes

3.       Rich Clune

4.       Michael Grabner

5.       Shawn Matthias

6.       P.A. Parenteau

7.       Roman Polak

8.       James Reimer

9.       Nick Spaling

Looking at List “A”, it was determined that the Leafs probably would not be able to trade all of these players. It was suggested that if the Leafs managed to receive a cumulative total of 4-5 picks and/or prospects for the nine players on List “A” they would have done their best to maximize their future assets from this crop of UFA’s.

Well, as it turned out, only four of the nine players were traded (Matthias, Polak, Reimer, and Spaling), but the haul received for them was more than expected.

Shawn Matthias returned a 2016 4^th round draft pick and Colin Smith (22). The pick is the prize though Colin Smith, who might be considered a low to mid “C” level prospect, is worth a look.

Roman Polak and Nick Spaling returned 2017 and 2018 2^nd round picks and Raffi Torres (34). The picks are the prize with Raffi Torres thrown in simply as a salary dump. In all likelihood, the Leafs will let Raffi Torres walk at the end of the year and not be too concerned.

James Reimer and Jeremy Morin returned a conditional 2018 4^th round pick, Alex Stalock (28), and Ben Smith (27). Once again, the pick is the prize for the Leafs as they exchanged an AHL’er in Jeremy Morin for an older player in Ben Smith who is probably looked upon as a veteran to fill a roster space and perhaps be bundled into a bigger package in the coming off-season.

To summarize the return from List “A”:

1.       A 4^th round 2016 draft pick

2.       A 2^nd round 2017 draft pick

3.       A 2^nd round 2018 draft pick

4.       A 4^th round 2018 draft pick (Conditional)

5.       A “C” level prospect in Colin Smith (22)

6.       A serviceable veteran in Ben Smith (27)

Basically, spot on for the initial estimate of 4-5 picks and/or prospects for List “A”. Another job well done by Leafs management.

Unfortunately, new teams were not to be found for Mark Arcobello, Brad Boyes, Rich Clune, Michael Grabner, and P.A. Parenteau so most of them will likely move on at the end of the season without returning anything of value to the Leafs for the rebuild.

Turning our attention to the other list, List “B” contained the following players:

1.       Jonathan Bernier

2.       Tyler Bozak

3.       Matt Hunwick

4.       Joffrey Lupul

5.       Dion Phaneuf

6.       Stephane Robidas

7.       Daniel Winnick

Looking at List “B”, it was determined that the Leafs probably would not be able to trade all of these players as some of them had less than optimal contracts. If the Leafs managed to receive a cumulative total of 3-4 picks and/or prospects for the seven players on List “B” they would have done their best to maximize their future assets from this crop of veteran non-UFA’s.

As it turned out, only two of the seven players were traded (Phaneuf and Winnick), but the haul received for them was more than expected – especially being able to get out from under the rather large and long-term contract of Dion Phaneuf.

Dion Phaneuf, Matt Frattin, Casey Bailey, Ryan Rupert, and Cody Donaghey returned a 2017 2^nd round draft pick, Tobias Lindberg (20), Jared Cowan (25), Colin Greening (29), and Milan Michalek (31). In this case the pick and Tobias Lindberg would be considered the prizes as Tobias Lindberg might be considered a high “B” level prospect. Even though Jared Cowan is only 25, his contract offers a rare credit to the salary cap if he is bought out this off-season so he, Colin Greening, and Milan Michalek would be considered salary dumps. But, as with Ben Smith, Greening and Michalek could potentially be packaged up in the off-season or at the next Trade Deadline and might return future assets for the Leafs’ rebuild.

Daniel Winnick and a 2016 5^th round pick returned Connor Carrick (21), Brooks Laich (32), and a 2016 2^nd round pick. Upgrading the 2016 pick from the 5^th round to the 2^nd round was a nice touch. In this trade, the pick and Connor Carrick would be considered the prizes but receiving another veteran, Brooks Laich, to provide veteran leadership and potentially package up in the off-season or at the next Trade Deadline should not be undervalued.

To summarize the return from List “B”:

1.       Removal of Dion Phaneuf’s contract and its’ AAV of $7 million for the next 5 years

2.       A 2^nd round 2016 draft pick

3.       A 2^nd round 2017 draft pick

4.       A high “B” level prospect in Tobias Lindberg (20)

5.       A “C” level prospect in Connor Carrick (21)

6.       Serviceable veterans in Colin Greening (29), Milan Michalek (31), and Brooks Laich (32)

7.       A potentially useful trade chip in the Jared Cowan contract

For List “B”, by virtue of trading Dion Phaneuf and his contract, the Leafs did better than the initial estimate of 3-4 picks and/or prospects. In fact, a fantastic job by Leafs management.

As they are still under contract for next year, the rest of the players on List “B” can be packaged up and traded either in this coming off-season or at the next Trade Deadline.

In a repeat of last year’s Trade Deadline,  the work done by the new management group of the Leafs deserves way more than a passing grade – in this case an extremely solid A.

Like last year, spreading the draft picks returned in these trades to 2017 and 2018 was the prudent move as it spreads the “lottery tickets” around to different years and hopefully increases the odds of the Leafs’ scouts finding hidden gems in other draft years.

With the excitement of the Trade Deadline past, the only option now is to wait for the next significant date on the Leafs' calendar - draft lottery day.