Toronto Maple Leafs 2017 Off-Season Game Plan - Part 1

The 2017 Stanley Cup Final (SCF) has finally reached a conclusion with the Pittsburgh Penguins defeating the Nashville Predators. Pittsburgh is the first team in the cap-era to repeat as back-to-back champions and the first team since the Detroit Red Wings in 1997 and 1998 to win back-to-back Stanley Cups.

How is any of this relevant to the Toronto Maple Leafs? Well, each of those teams, Nashville and Pittsburgh, accomplished getting to the SCF in very different ways. With their number 1 centre (1C) sidelined with injury, Nashville relied on a mostly unsung group of forwards backed up with an extremely talented top-4 defence corp. While Pittsburgh, with their star defenceman sidelined with injury, relied on a star-studded forward group backed by a nondescript defence corp.

With the acquisition, prior to last season, of a number 1 goalie (Frederik Andersen) and the performance of the Leafs rookies last season, it seems like the Leafs are pretty close to being set with their goaltending and in their forward group with a potentially star-studded group. Naturally, attention would then turn to the only other area the Leafs need to address, their defence corp., and its’ perceived lack of a 1^st or 2^nd pairing right-handed D-man (RHD) to play with the top-4 D-men the Leafs currently have – Morgan Rielly, Jake Gardiner, and Nikita Zaitsev.

A cursory look through the defensive depth chart for the Leafs shows that there is no one in the prospect pipeline who can fill that 1^st or 2^nd pairing role next season. This means there are only two other possible avenues for the Leafs to explore in an attempt to acquire that 1^st or 2^nd pairing D-man – the Free Agent (FA) or trade markets.

This article won’t get into the options available in the FA market as they have been covered here, so that leaves the trade market.

The first step in venturing into the trade market is determining who the Leafs might be prepared to trade. What do the Leafs have that other teams might want? How about a large winger who scores somewhere between 25-30 goals and 55-60 points year after year? Or how about a veteran centre, good in the face-off circle, that can put up 15-20 goals and 45-50 points? What about a plethora of promising wingers patiently waiting in the AHL, or the Leafs’ press box, for their opportunity to shine at the NHL level? Finally, perhaps the Leafs might be prepared to part with their 1^st round pick, 17^th overall, in this year’s NHL Entry Draft?

The trading of established veterans like JVR or Tyler Bozak seems to be the most logical option, but the reality of that situation is neither of those veterans in a one for one trade is going to land the Leafs a 1^st pairing RHD. Even packaging both JVR and Tyler Bozak together in a two for one trade is not going to land the coveted 1^st pairing RHD. Could either of those players on their own land an established 2^nd pairing RHD? Not likely. How about a two for one trade, this time for that established 2^nd pairing RHD? The odds would have improved slightly but the Leafs would still need to identify a team wanting a top-6 scoring winger (isn’t that every team?) and a solid 3^rd line centre, be willing to pay them a combined $8.45 million next year, be willing to sign both players to similar or larger contracts after next season as both players are set to become Unrestricted Free Agents (UFAs) at the end of next season, and be willing to trade an established 2^nd pairing RHD from their roster. I’m not saying this scenario is impossible, but the chances of this happening might only be slightly better than finding a unicorn.

Looking at the plethora of wingers the Leafs have in the AHL or junior, the simple truth of the matter is that in the Leafs’ pipeline there is no prospect, or likely any combination of prospects that could be put together to form a sufficient package that would acquire a 1^st or 2^nd pairing RHD.

Would the Leafs’ 1^st round pick in this year’s NHL Entry Draft obtain a 1^st or 2^nd pairing RHD on its’ own? Not likely.

Could the Leafs package up their 1^st round draft pick, a prospect or two, and JVR and/or Tyler Bozak to acquire a 1^st pairing RHD? Again, not very likely.

Would the above package acquire a 2^nd pairing RHD? Very likely. Would that package be an extreme over-payment on the Leafs part? Absolutely.

If the Leafs were to pay the price of the above package to acquire that 2^nd pairing RHD, not only would it create possibly two holes (JVR and T. Bozak) in their current lineup, it could also potentially cripple the Leafs ability to contend in the future by decimating the needed prospect pipeline – in effect this trade could turn into an all-or-nothing gamble on winning the Stanley Cup in the next couple years. Is this the kind of gamble current Leafs management is prepared to take? Based on their previous actions the answer would seem to be a resounding no.

OK then, what should the Leafs’ plan for the defence corp. be this off-season?

First. Keep monitoring the trade market in case a 1^st or 2^nd pairing RHD suddenly becomes available at a reasonable price. This would include speaking with the Las Vegas Golden Knights after the Expansion Draft has taken place.

Second. Fly in the face of conventional hockey wisdom, which says to always draft the “Best Player Available” (BPA), by drafting a “BPA” from the D-men in this year’s draft and patiently develop that D-man for future deployment on the Leaf blue-line.

Third. Sign Matt Hunwick to another reasonable 1 year contract as a depth or insurance option.

Fourth. Enter next season’s training camp with the idea of your current D-men prospects (Dermott, Nielsen, Valiev) and the European FA’s recently signed (Rosen and Borgman) battling it out to prove if anyone is ready to assume a 1^st or 2^nd pairing position.

It’s not the sexiest or quickest way to plug a hole in the Leafs defence corp., but it also doesn't create a hole or holes elsewhere in the Leafs’ roster. 

There is something to be said for the patient draft and develop approach when it comes to defencemen, especially when looking at Nashville’s defence corp. and how their talented 1^st and 2^nd pairings helped Nashville to reach the SCF’s.