As part of their stated goal to rebuild into a Stanley
Cup contending team, the new management group of the Toronto Maple Leafs have stated
that drafting and development are two of the most important aspects of this
rebuild.
As drafting is the first part of the new management
group’s mantra, it might be interesting to compare the draft history of the
Maple Leafs to some of the other NHL teams who are perceived to have had strong
drafting records. To keep the scope of this comparison focused, we will
concentrate on the drafts from the years starting in 2006 – the year Dave
Morrison was appointed Director of Amateur Scouting for the Maple Leafs.
Looking around the NHL, the one team most fans would agree that appears to have had an exemplary drafting record would be the Detroit Red Wings. In fact, as most fans would consider the
Wings the gold standard when it comes to drafting, let's analyze
their drafting record and compare it to the drafting record of the Leafs during
the years from 2006 to 2014.
Before we go any further with this analysis, there is one
major caveat that has to be acknowledged - we don't know, and probably never
will know, who had the final say in choosing the Leaf's draft picks since 2006
– was it strictly the call of Dave Morrison or were any of his recommendations
overridden by others in the ranks of Leafs management?
To start, let’s look at a couples of charts showing all the players
drafted by the Leafs since 2006. But first, an explanation of what each of the
columns means:
1.
Current Team – NHL team owning that player’s
rights. If blank, player is still with the Leafs.
2.
Draft Yr / Round – NHL Entry Draft Year and
Round number.
3.
Overall Pick – Within each Round, Leafs’ draft
position. If red, Leafs didn’t have pick. If yellow, Leafs had extra pick.
4.
Player – Name of player Leafs picked.
5.
P o s – Position drafted player plays.
6.
Total NHL Games Played – Total number of NHL
games player has played by end of 2014/15 season.
7.
NHL Games for TML – Total number of NHL games
player has played for Leafs by end of 2014/15 season.
8.
Difference – Difference between 6 and 7.
9.
NHL Games Post Draft – Total number of NHL games
after NHL Entry Draft year.
10.
Super Aggressive NHL Games – Total number of
games a player should have played if they were on a super aggressive path to
the NHL. i.e. Played in NHL next year after being drafted. An ‘x’ in this
column indicates that the player followed this path to the NHL.
11.
Aggressive NHL Games – Total number of NHL games
a player should have played if they were on an aggressive path to the NHL. i.e.
Played in NHL 2nd year after being drafted. (Draft + 1). An ‘x’ in this column
indicates that the player followed this path to the NHL.
12.
Conservative NHL Games - Total number of NHL
games a player should have played if they were on a conservative path to the
NHL. i.e. Played in NHL 3rd year after being drafted. (Draft + 2). An ‘x’ in
this column indicates that the player followed this path to the NHL.
13.
Ultra Conservative NHL Games - Total number of
NHL games a player should have played if they were on an ultra conservative
path to the NHL. i.e. Played in NHL 4th year after being drafted. (Draft + 3).
An ‘x’ in this column indicates that the player followed this path to the NHL.
There’s a few interesting points which jump out immediately from the above charts:
1. A total of 9 years are covered and in those 9 years (each with 7 rounds), there was a total of 63 draft picks that each NHL team would have been given.
2. The Leafs actually made 61 picks out of the total of 63 picks available to them.
3. By the end of the 2014/15 season, of the 61 picks the Leafs made, 23 have gone on to play in the NHL.
4. Of those 23 that have played NHL games, 20 of them have played for the Leafs.
5. The Super Aggressive path has been followed with only one player – Luke Schenn.
6. The Aggressive path has been followed with three players, Jiri Tlusty, Nazem Kadri, and Morgan Rielly.
7. The Conservative path has been followed with two players – Nikolay Kulemin and Carl Gunnarsson.
8. The Ultra Conservative path has been followed with the vast majority of players – fourteen.
9. There are a lot of Red boxes (15) in the Overall Pick column. This indicates where the Leafs did NOT have a pick in a particular round.
10. There are a lot of Yellow boxes (13) in the Overall Pick column. This indicates where the Leafs had an EXTRA pick in a particular round.
To a casual fan, the perception of the Leafs draft record for the past 9 years would certainly have included the idea that the Leafs were hobbled in their drafting by the notion that they had traded away a lot of their picks. But as shown, the Leafs still made 61 picks out of a possible total of 63. The Leafs did trade away a lot of picks (15), but they also acquired a lot of picks (13) in trades with other teams. Of course, a lot of pressure was placed on the scouting staff when 1st and 2nd round picks were traded away and replaced, for the most part, with picks in the 5th, 6th, or 7th rounds.
As the Leafs have followed the Ultra Conservative approach with the vast majority of their players, any attempt to quantify the quality of the Leafs draft picks should only include players drafted from the years 2006 to 2011. Looking at those years, the Leafs drafted a total of 44 players, 22 of which went on to play games in the NHL –a 50% success rate. Eliminating anyone who did not play an NHL game for the Leafs leaves 19 players – approximately a 43% success rate. Would these rates be considered bad or good? Only comparisons to the records of other teams will shed any light on that question.
In that vein, let’s compare the Leafs’ record versus the record for the Detroit Red Wings. Here’s the Wing’s charts covering the same years as the Leafs’ chart above:
There’s a few interesting points which jump out immediately from Detroit’s charts above:
1. A total of 9 years are covered and in those 9 years (each with 7 rounds), there was a total of 63 draft picks that each NHL team would have been given.
2. The Wings actually made 62 picks out of the total of 63 picks available to them.
3. By the end of the 2014/15 season, of the 62 picks the Wings made, 20 have gone on to play in the NHL.
4. Of those 20 that have played NHL games, 18 of them have played for the Wings.
5. The Super Aggressive path has been followed with ZERO players.
6. The Aggressive path has been followed with ZERO players.
7. The Conservative path has been followed with two players – Tomas Jurco and Xavier Ouellet.
8. The Ultra Conservative path has been followed with the VAST majority of players – sixteen.
9. There are a lot of Red boxes (11) in the Overall Pick column. This indicates where the Wings did NOT have a pick in a particular round.
10. There are a lot of Yellow boxes (10) in the Overall Pick column. This indicates where the Wings had an EXTRA pick in a particular round.
To a casual fan, the perception of the Wings draft record for the past 9 years would certainly have included the notion that the Wings hoarded their picks and even went so far as to accumulate excess picks. But as shown, the Wings made 62 picks out of a possible total of 63 – only one more pick than the Leafs. The Wings also did trade away a lot of picks (11), but they also acquired a lot of picks (10) in trades with other teams. Like the Leafs, the Wings also placed a lot of pressure on their scouting staff by trading away quite a few 1st and 2nd round picks. But unlike the Leafs, the Wings mostly replaced the picks they traded away with picks in the 2nd or 3rd rounds.
As the Wings have very clearly followed the Ultra Conservative approach with the vast majority of their players, any attempt to quantify the quality of the Wings draft picks should only include players drafted from the years 2006 to 2011. Looking at those years, the Wings drafted a total of 41 players, 20 of which went on to play games in the NHL –approximately a 48% success rate. Eliminating anyone who did not play an NHL game for the Wings leaves 18 players – approximately a 44% success rate.
OK, now that there are some basic numbers to compare, let’s see how the Leafs' drafting has stood up against the drafting dynamo known as the Detroit Red Wings. Here’s a chart showing a simple breakdown of the numbers:
As both teams mostly follow the Ultra Conservative path for their players, the chart above does a comparison of the drafting record for each team from the year 2006 up to and including the year 2011 – if they are following an Ultra Conservative path, any players drafted in 2012, 2013, or 2014 should not be playing in the NHL. In the case of the Leafs, we have removed Morgan Rielly from the numbers above as he was drafted in 2012.
On the surface, the chart above blows away quite a few of the misconceptions concerning the drafting record of the Leafs.
1. During the time period in question, the Leafs had more draft picks than the Wings – 44 vs. 41.
2. Of each team’s respective picks, a higher percentage of the Leafs picks have gone on to play in the NHL – 50% vs. 48%.
3. Of each team’s respective picks, a slightly smaller percentage of the Leafs picks have gone on to play in the NHL for the Leafs – 43% vs. 44%. Though the actual number (19) is higher than the Wings number (18).
Supporters of the Wing’s draft record would attempt to counter the chart above by saying that the Leafs had more picks (44) to the Wings (41) therefore that would explain why the Leafs percentages are basically the same or just slightly higher. Of course, this is true, the Leafs did have an extra three picks – but with those extra three picks, the Leafs managed to draft an extra two players who did play an NHL game. As well, the Leafs also managed to draft an extra player would did play at least one NHL game for them. Either of those two scenarios is quite remarkable in its’ own right.
Perhaps the Wings drafting superiority can be found in the total number of NHL games their drafted players have played?
How about the total number of NHL games each team’s drafted players have played for them?
How about the total number of NHL games each team’s drafted players have played for other teams?
OK, now we’ve found something.
But the chart above does NOT speak to the drafting record of the Leafs. Instead, it says volumes about the development record of the Leafs. A topic that’ll be looked at in detail in subsequent articles.
As can be seen from the various comparisons above, the Leafs’ drafting record stacks up very favourably versus the Wings’ drafting record. Perhaps the Leafs’ amateur scouting department and its former head, Dave Morrison, have been unfairly maligned over the past 9 years?
