Toronto Maple Leafs Trade Deadline - The Aftermath

The second Trade Deadline day in the multi-year rebuild of the Toronto Maple Leafs has passed, and what, if anything, has changed?

In a previous article on this site (A Plan for 2016 Trade Deadline), a plan was put forth on how the Leafs could have approached the February 29^th Trade Deadline with an eye to managing and maximizing their assets. In summary, that plan was to create a list with every Leaf player over the age of 25 and subsequently sub-divide that list into two other lists – List “A (UFA’s) and List “B” (non-UFA’s).

As List “A” was the UFA’s, who could walk at the end of the season without the Leafs receiving anything back in compensation, it was obviously time sensitive and required immediate attention.

List “A” had the following nine players on it:

1.       Mark Arcobello

2.       Brad Boyes

3.       Rich Clune

4.       Michael Grabner

5.       Shawn Matthias

6.       P.A. Parenteau

7.       Roman Polak

8.       James Reimer

9.       Nick Spaling

Looking at List “A”, it was determined that the Leafs probably would not be able to trade all of these players. It was suggested that if the Leafs managed to receive a cumulative total of 4-5 picks and/or prospects for the nine players on List “A” they would have done their best to maximize their future assets from this crop of UFA’s.

Well, as it turned out, only four of the nine players were traded (Matthias, Polak, Reimer, and Spaling), but the haul received for them was more than expected.

Shawn Matthias returned a 2016 4^th round draft pick and Colin Smith (22). The pick is the prize though Colin Smith, who might be considered a low to mid “C” level prospect, is worth a look.

Roman Polak and Nick Spaling returned 2017 and 2018 2^nd round picks and Raffi Torres (34). The picks are the prize with Raffi Torres thrown in simply as a salary dump. In all likelihood, the Leafs will let Raffi Torres walk at the end of the year and not be too concerned.

James Reimer and Jeremy Morin returned a conditional 2018 4^th round pick, Alex Stalock (28), and Ben Smith (27). Once again, the pick is the prize for the Leafs as they exchanged an AHL’er in Jeremy Morin for an older player in Ben Smith who is probably looked upon as a veteran to fill a roster space and perhaps be bundled into a bigger package in the coming off-season.

To summarize the return from List “A”:

1.       A 4^th round 2016 draft pick

2.       A 2^nd round 2017 draft pick

3.       A 2^nd round 2018 draft pick

4.       A 4^th round 2018 draft pick (Conditional)

5.       A “C” level prospect in Colin Smith (22)

6.       A serviceable veteran in Ben Smith (27)

Basically, spot on for the initial estimate of 4-5 picks and/or prospects for List “A”. Another job well done by Leafs management.

Unfortunately, new teams were not to be found for Mark Arcobello, Brad Boyes, Rich Clune, Michael Grabner, and P.A. Parenteau so most of them will likely move on at the end of the season without returning anything of value to the Leafs for the rebuild.

Turning our attention to the other list, List “B” contained the following players:

1.       Jonathan Bernier

2.       Tyler Bozak

3.       Matt Hunwick

4.       Joffrey Lupul

5.       Dion Phaneuf

6.       Stephane Robidas

7.       Daniel Winnick

Looking at List “B”, it was determined that the Leafs probably would not be able to trade all of these players as some of them had less than optimal contracts. If the Leafs managed to receive a cumulative total of 3-4 picks and/or prospects for the seven players on List “B” they would have done their best to maximize their future assets from this crop of veteran non-UFA’s.

As it turned out, only two of the seven players were traded (Phaneuf and Winnick), but the haul received for them was more than expected – especially being able to get out from under the rather large and long-term contract of Dion Phaneuf.

Dion Phaneuf, Matt Frattin, Casey Bailey, Ryan Rupert, and Cody Donaghey returned a 2017 2^nd round draft pick, Tobias Lindberg (20), Jared Cowan (25), Colin Greening (29), and Milan Michalek (31). In this case the pick and Tobias Lindberg would be considered the prizes as Tobias Lindberg might be considered a high “B” level prospect. Even though Jared Cowan is only 25, his contract offers a rare credit to the salary cap if he is bought out this off-season so he, Colin Greening, and Milan Michalek would be considered salary dumps. But, as with Ben Smith, Greening and Michalek could potentially be packaged up in the off-season or at the next Trade Deadline and might return future assets for the Leafs’ rebuild.

Daniel Winnick and a 2016 5^th round pick returned Connor Carrick (21), Brooks Laich (32), and a 2016 2^nd round pick. Upgrading the 2016 pick from the 5^th round to the 2^nd round was a nice touch. In this trade, the pick and Connor Carrick would be considered the prizes but receiving another veteran, Brooks Laich, to provide veteran leadership and potentially package up in the off-season or at the next Trade Deadline should not be undervalued.

To summarize the return from List “B”:

1.       Removal of Dion Phaneuf’s contract and its’ AAV of $7 million for the next 5 years

2.       A 2^nd round 2016 draft pick

3.       A 2^nd round 2017 draft pick

4.       A high “B” level prospect in Tobias Lindberg (20)

5.       A “C” level prospect in Connor Carrick (21)

6.       Serviceable veterans in Colin Greening (29), Milan Michalek (31), and Brooks Laich (32)

7.       A potentially useful trade chip in the Jared Cowan contract

For List “B”, by virtue of trading Dion Phaneuf and his contract, the Leafs did better than the initial estimate of 3-4 picks and/or prospects. In fact, a fantastic job by Leafs management.

As they are still under contract for next year, the rest of the players on List “B” can be packaged up and traded either in this coming off-season or at the next Trade Deadline.

In a repeat of last year’s Trade Deadline,  the work done by the new management group of the Leafs deserves way more than a passing grade – in this case an extremely solid A.

Like last year, spreading the draft picks returned in these trades to 2017 and 2018 was the prudent move as it spreads the “lottery tickets” around to different years and hopefully increases the odds of the Leafs’ scouts finding hidden gems in other draft years.

With the excitement of the Trade Deadline past, the only option now is to wait for the next significant date on the Leafs' calendar - draft lottery day.

Toronto Maple Leafs – A New Reality

February 26 2015, July 1 2015, February 9 2016. If you’re a hard-core Leafs fan you know the significance of these dates. They represent three important mile-posts along the Rebuild Way – the respective dates when David Clarkson, Phil Kessel, and Dion Phaneuf were traded.

Let’s stop and gaze in wonder, for a minute, at that last statement. David Clarkson, Phil Kessel, and Dion Phaneuf were traded.

The new Leafs management team of Brendan Shanahan, Lou Lamoriello, Kyle Dubas, and company have done a fantastic job in ridding the Leafs of three long-term and extremely debilitating cap-hits. They were able to trade the “untradeable” contract of David Clarkson (annual AAV of $5.25 million) and retain zero AAV. They were able to trade the huge contract of Phi Kessel (annual AAV of $8.0 million) and only retain $1.2 million of AAV. Finally, they were able to trade the large contract of Dion Phaneuf (annual AAV of $7.0 million) and retain zero AAV. That’s a combined anchor of $19.05 million of annual AAV removed from around the Leafs neck for at least the next 4 years!

Back in October, just after this season started, on this site there was an article (Time for a Reality Check) which sadly informed Leafs Nation the most likely scenario was that Dion Phaneuf, Tyler Bozak, and Joffrey Lupul would remain Leafs for the duration of their respective contracts. As was alluded to in that article, the trading of the longest and largest of the three contracts without having to retain any AAV should warrant big bonuses for the new Leafs management group!

As he has the largest remaining AAV at $5.25 million, next on the agenda should be finding a new home for Joffrey Lupul. If Lou Lamoriello can pull this off, he should most definitely earn himself a big, fat bonus. Perhaps a percentage of the salary he is able to off-load in the form of a 10% “finders-fee”?

At the current moment, it seems very likely that Tyler Bozak will finish this season as a Toronto Maple Leaf. But what happens at the draft and/or on July 1^st (free-agent day), will most likely determine whether he starts next season as a Leaf.

Let’s take a short stroll down fantasy lane:

1. The hockey Gods are finally kind to the Leafs and allow them to win the Draft Lottery. Bingo, there’s your 1C for the next decade or so – Auston Mathews.
2. Steven Stamkos makes it to free agency and the Leafs have a big enough Brinks truck. Bingo, there’s your 2C for the next 7 years.
3. William Nylander gets the promotion from the Marlies to the Leafs that he has earned. Bingo, there’s your 3C.
4. By default, that makes Nazem Kadri your 4C and pushes Tyler Bozak off the depth chart.

At this point it gets interesting. 

If you’re Leafs management, do you keep Nazem Kadri as your 4C? 

Or do you look to package Nazem Kadri with other player(s) and/or prospect(s) and try to secure a potential top-pairing D-man to play with Morgan Rielly?

In this situation, both of these scenarios make sense:

1. Keep Tyler Bozak for the next two seasons to ably fill the 4C role. 
2. Replace him with a cheaper player currently in the Leafs system or acquired as a cheap UFA signing. 

And we’re back. 

With the trading of Dion Phaneuf, the new reality for the Leafs is very much brighter, but most likely plays out in this very Leafian way:

1. The Leafs finish last overall (30th) and lose all three draft lotteries and pick fourth overall.
2. Steven Stamkos makes it to free agency but chooses to sign with another team.

In this more realistic scenario, William Nylander hopefully becomes your 1C and Nazem Kadri stays slotted in as the 2C. Tyler Bozak stays for the next two seasons as the 3C and a decision can be made from the remainder of the centres in the Leafs system as to who gets to be slotted in as the 4C.

Make no mistake, on February 10th 2016, the new reality for the Leafs became a much brighter future. The fact the Leafs somehow managed to wiggle out from under the worst of the Phaneuf, Lupul, and Bozak contracts during this season should definitely be seen as a major positive. Wiggle out from under another one or two and all the dead wood left over from the Dave Nonis era could finally be gone!

Toronto Maple Leafs - a Plan for the 2016 Trade Deadline

Around this time last year, I wrote an article about what I thought the plan should be for the Leafs heading into the 2015 Trade Deadline. Take a moment to reread that article to refresh your memory or I can summarize it for you. My suggested plan, with only a few exceptions, was to find new teams for everyone on the February 2015 Leafs’ roster over the age of 25.

Applying my age 25 cut-off plan to the Leaf roster back in February 2015 yielded this list:

Table 1

As can be seen, that plan yielded an original list of 16 players. 

Revising that list to keep only the players who played the “right way” (Leo Komarov, Roman Polak, and James Reimer), yielded a list of 13 players:

Table 2

That revised list was further split into two lists – List “A” and “B”:

Table 3

Table 4

As can be seen, List “A” was the pending Unrestricted Free Agents (UFAs) and List “B” was the players with term still left on their contracts.

By the 2015 Trade Deadline, Leafs management had done a great job and had been able to trade 4 of the 6 players on List “A”.

I’m sure the trade market was rigorously explored for the players on List “B” and before the beginning of the 2015/16 season, Leafs management had done a fantastic job and traded 2 of the 3 players who still had extended term left on List “B” – David Clarkson and Phil Kessel. Having to retain salary on the Phil Kessel deal was unfortunate but seemingly necessary to be able to find him a new team.

Unfortunately, there was still a contract left on List “B” which could impact the Leafs when they enter their competitive window – Dion Phaneuf. An argument can be made that he could provide the kind of veteran presence needed by a young defense corps but paying your 5th or 6th D-man $7 million AAV isn’t ideal. Finding a trading partner for Dion without retaining any salary would give the Leafs a lot of future flexibility under the salary cap, something they will need as their youngsters start coming off their ELCs.

Now, applying my same age 25 cut-off plan to the 2015/16 Leafs roster yields these lists:

Table 5

Once again, there are some serviceable players on the above list of 18. Keeping a few of them around could prove useful. They could provide a good example of how to play the "right way", fill out roster spaces, and most importantly, provide ample time for all the youngsters coming in via the draft and/or trades to continue developing in the minors - whether the OHL, AHL, or overseas.

Therefore, from the original list of 18, Leo Komarov and James Van Riemsdyk are definitely keepers. Depending on whether Dion Phaneuf is traded and how much term he wants will determine whether Matt Hunwick and James Reimer respectively are Leafs to start the 2016/17 season.

Looking at the revised list of 18 above, it’s obvious that contract status should once again split the list into two new lists – List “A” and List “B”:

Table 6

Table 7

As can be seen, List “A” are the pending Unrestricted Free Agents (UFAs) and List “B” are the players with term still left on their contracts.

As the players on List “A” are becoming UFAs at the end of this season, it has a time constraint, therefore new teams should be found before the February 29 2016 trade deadline for the following players:

1. Mark Arcobello

2. Brad Boyes

3. Rich Clune

4. Michael Grabner

5  Shawn Matthias

6. P.A. Parenteau

7. Roman Polak

8. James Reimer?

9. Nick Spaling

I am not going to speculate on what the relative value of the above 9 players is and what exactly the return would be for each, there are plenty of other sites doing that, but let's assume that it would most likely be some combination of prospects and/or picks numbering around 4-5.

List “B” has its own constraints, but time is not one of them. Therefore, more time could be taken and/or options explored before new teams should be found for these players:

1. Jonathan Bernier

2. Tyler Bozak

3. Matt Hunwick?

4. Joffrey Lupul

5. Dion Phaneuf

6. Stephane Robidas

7. Daniel Winnick

Again, I am not going to speculate on what the relative value of the above 7 players is and what exactly the return should be for each, but let's assume that it most likely could be some combination of players and/or prospects and/or picks numbering around 3-4.

There it is – a simple plan having a simple first goal - find new homes for the UFA players on List “A”.

After their excellent job last year, it will be interesting to see how successful Leafs management is in implementing my plan leading up to and through Trade Deadline day on February 29th. 

The Day After

OK, it's the day after the March 2nd Trade Deadline and what exactly has changed in Leaf land.

A couple of minor moves were made in the minors. The Leaf's reacquired T.J. Brennan (25) by shipping out Spencer Abbott and claimed Tim Erixon (24) on waivers. While neither move is a particularly earth-shattering move for the Leaf's, they may help the Marlies in their push for the playoffs. A worthwhile goal in its own right as it can provide the developing youngsters with extra games and some playoff experience.

A potentially more significant move, at least as far as the cap is concerned, was the trading of David Clarkson for Nathan Horton (29). Even if Nathan Horton never plays a game as a Leaf (the most likely outcome) and this rebuild takes as long as it most likely should, 4 to 7 years, and the Leaf's aren't where they shouldn't be in that time frame (up against the cap), this should still be looked upon as a good move by Leaf management. It gives them something that may prove useful if the rebuild goes faster than planned - flexibility concerning the cap.

In fact, a case could be made to say that this is a very shrewd move by Leaf's management. They are exploiting one area where they have a distinct advantage over most of the other teams in the league - an essentially unlimited amount of money to spend outside the confines of the cap.

Even though the above changes, in and of themselves, are good moves, the most important changes happened on the trade front.

From my original list of 7 players (List A) scheduled to become UFAs at season's end and therefore new homes had to be found for, we can see that Leaf's management has found a new home for 5 of the 7. A pretty solid effort.

The 5 now ex-Leafs:

1. Cody Franson
2. Mike Santorelli
3. Korbinian Holzer
4. Daniel Winnick
5. Olli Jokinen

Unfortunately, new homes could not be found for David Booth or Trevor Smith.

To provide a grade for the solid effort put in by Leaf's management let's look at the total haul of what assets were acquired for the above 5 players:

1. 2015 - 1st Round
2. 2015 - 4th Round
3. 2016 - 2nd Round
4. 2016 - 5th Round
5. 2016 - 6th Round (Conditional)

6. Brendan Leipsic (20)

7. Zach Sill (26)
8. Joakim Lindstrom (31)
9. Eric Brewer (35)

Five draft picks (including a 1st rounder!), 1 high "C" maybe low "B" level prospect, and a free look at 3 players (roster placeholders) who most likely don't fit into the long-term plans of the Leafs but should buy more time for some of the youngsters to develop down in the minors - which is where they should be developing.

All in all an effort worthy of a solid B+. It could have been an A- or even an A if more of the 2016 draft picks had been 2015 draft picks, but since this rebuild is going to be a multi-year effort, taking the 2016 draft picks was the prudent move.

Now that the "excitement" of Trade Deadline is over, we have no choice but to wait for the next significant date on the Leaf's calendar - draft lottery day.

A Plan, a plan, Leafs Nation for a plan

As fans of the Maple Leafs, we all know that the fan base is  wide and deep. Within a group so large, you would think it would be difficult to find consensus, but there is one thing that most of us would agree on - a frustration with the various ownership groups and management teams over the past 47 years who couldn't seem to settle on a plan and stick to it.

If you have been following the Toronto media lately, you no doubt have read that the board of MLSE has given team president Brendan Shanahan the go ahead to tear it down and do a rebuild.

On the surface this sounds good, but never actually having seen one performed on their team, the fan base can be forgiven for not understanding exactly what a rebuild would entail. Does it mean finding new teams for "the core", does it mean finding new teams for every single player who has worn a Maple Leaf sweater this year, or does it mean some variation of those two options?

As a bit of an arm chair GM, I would like to put forward my own plan - a plan which I believe would mesh nicely with the current direction our Maple Leafs seem to be headed.


Find new teams for everyone on the current Maple Leaf roster over the age of 25.

That's it. A deceptively simple plan which is incredibly easy to follow and implement. If you will, foolproof.

Looking at the current Maple Leaf roster, the above plan would mean new teams would have to be found for the following players:

1. Jonathan Bernier
2. David Booth
3. Tyler Bozak
4. David Clarkson
5. Cody Franson
6. Korbinian Holzer
7. Olli Jokinen
8. Phil Kessel
9. Leo Komarov
10. Joffrey Lupul
11. Dion Phaneuf
12. Roman Polak
13. James Reimer
14. Stephane Robidas
15. Mike Santorelli
16. Trevor Smith
17. Daniel Winnick

Finding new teams for 17 of your current 23 man roster certainly qualifies as "cleaning house", but is not very realistic.

In fact, there are some serviceable players on the above list of 17. Keeping a few of them around could prove useful, to provide a good example of how to play the "right way", to fill out roster spaces, and most importantly, to provide ample time for all the youngsters coming in via the draft and/or trades to continue developing in minors - whether OHL or AHL.

Having made the first modification to the plan, this modification would yield a small list of players to keep:

1. Leo Komarov - plays the "right way".
2. Roman Polak - a good mentor for Morgan Rielly and/or Jake Gardiner.
3. James Reimer - a capable, NHL caliber goaltender.

But, the first modification to the above plan still yields a rather lengthy list of players to find new teams for:

1. Jonathan Bernier
2. David Booth
3. Tyler Bozak
4. David Clarkson
5. Cody Franson
6. Korbinian Holzer
7. Olli Jokinen
8. Phil Kessel
9. Joffrey Lupul
10. Dion Phaneuf
11. Stephane Robidas
12  Mike Santorelli
13. Trevor Smith
14. Daniel Winnick

Looking down the above list of 14, it can be determined that, based on contract status, the list should be split into two new lists.

The first list (List A) has a bit of a time constraint as the players on it are becoming UFAs at the end of this season. Therefore, new teams would have to be found before the March 2 2015 trade deadline for:

1. David Booth
2. Cody Franson
3. Korbinian Holzer
4. Olli Jokinen
5  Mike Santorelli
6. Trevor Smith
7. Daniel Winnick

I am not going to speculate on what the relative value of the above 7 players is and what exactly the return would be for each, there are plenty of other sites doing that, but let's assume that it would most likely be some combination of prospects and/or picks numbering around 7.

The second list (List B) would have its own constraints, but time would not be one of them. Therefore, more time could be taken and/or options explored before new teams would have to be found for these players:

1. Jonathan Bernier
2. Tyler Bozak
3. David Clarkson
4. Phil Kessel
5. Joffrey Lupul
6. Dion Phaneuf
7. Stephane Robidas

Again, I am not going to speculate on what the relative value of the above 7 players is and what exactly the return would be for each, but let's assume that it would most likely be some combination of players and/or prospects and/or picks numbering around 8.

There you have it.

A simple plan having a simple first goal - find new homes for the list of players on List A.

It will be interesting to see how successful Leafs management is leading up to and through Trade Deadline day on March 2nd.