Toronto Maple Leafs – A New Reality

February 26 2015, July 1 2015, February 9 2016. If you’re a hard-core Leafs fan you know the significance of these dates. They represent three important mile-posts along the Rebuild Way – the respective dates when David Clarkson, Phil Kessel, and Dion Phaneuf were traded.

Let’s stop and gaze in wonder, for a minute, at that last statement. David Clarkson, Phil Kessel, and Dion Phaneuf were traded.

The new Leafs management team of Brendan Shanahan, Lou Lamoriello, Kyle Dubas, and company have done a fantastic job in ridding the Leafs of three long-term and extremely debilitating cap-hits. They were able to trade the “untradeable” contract of David Clarkson (annual AAV of $5.25 million) and retain zero AAV. They were able to trade the huge contract of Phi Kessel (annual AAV of $8.0 million) and only retain $1.2 million of AAV. Finally, they were able to trade the large contract of Dion Phaneuf (annual AAV of $7.0 million) and retain zero AAV. That’s a combined anchor of $19.05 million of annual AAV removed from around the Leafs neck for at least the next 4 years!

Back in October, just after this season started, on this site there was an article (Time for a Reality Check) which sadly informed Leafs Nation the most likely scenario was that Dion Phaneuf, Tyler Bozak, and Joffrey Lupul would remain Leafs for the duration of their respective contracts. As was alluded to in that article, the trading of the longest and largest of the three contracts without having to retain any AAV should warrant big bonuses for the new Leafs management group!

As he has the largest remaining AAV at $5.25 million, next on the agenda should be finding a new home for Joffrey Lupul. If Lou Lamoriello can pull this off, he should most definitely earn himself a big, fat bonus. Perhaps a percentage of the salary he is able to off-load in the form of a 10% “finders-fee”?

At the current moment, it seems very likely that Tyler Bozak will finish this season as a Toronto Maple Leaf. But what happens at the draft and/or on July 1^st (free-agent day), will most likely determine whether he starts next season as a Leaf.

Let’s take a short stroll down fantasy lane:

1. The hockey Gods are finally kind to the Leafs and allow them to win the Draft Lottery. Bingo, there’s your 1C for the next decade or so – Auston Mathews.
2. Steven Stamkos makes it to free agency and the Leafs have a big enough Brinks truck. Bingo, there’s your 2C for the next 7 years.
3. William Nylander gets the promotion from the Marlies to the Leafs that he has earned. Bingo, there’s your 3C.
4. By default, that makes Nazem Kadri your 4C and pushes Tyler Bozak off the depth chart.

At this point it gets interesting. 

If you’re Leafs management, do you keep Nazem Kadri as your 4C? 

Or do you look to package Nazem Kadri with other player(s) and/or prospect(s) and try to secure a potential top-pairing D-man to play with Morgan Rielly?

In this situation, both of these scenarios make sense:

1. Keep Tyler Bozak for the next two seasons to ably fill the 4C role. 
2. Replace him with a cheaper player currently in the Leafs system or acquired as a cheap UFA signing. 

And we’re back. 

With the trading of Dion Phaneuf, the new reality for the Leafs is very much brighter, but most likely plays out in this very Leafian way:

1. The Leafs finish last overall (30th) and lose all three draft lotteries and pick fourth overall.
2. Steven Stamkos makes it to free agency but chooses to sign with another team.

In this more realistic scenario, William Nylander hopefully becomes your 1C and Nazem Kadri stays slotted in as the 2C. Tyler Bozak stays for the next two seasons as the 3C and a decision can be made from the remainder of the centres in the Leafs system as to who gets to be slotted in as the 4C.

Make no mistake, on February 10th 2016, the new reality for the Leafs became a much brighter future. The fact the Leafs somehow managed to wiggle out from under the worst of the Phaneuf, Lupul, and Bozak contracts during this season should definitely be seen as a major positive. Wiggle out from under another one or two and all the dead wood left over from the Dave Nonis era could finally be gone!