Toronto Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Lottery - The Aftermath

At the conclusion of the 2015/2016 NHL regular season - a season which saw the Toronto Maple Leafs finish 30th overall - there seemed to be a dejected resignation amongst most of Leafs Nation. Even though, by finishing 30th, the Leafs had secured the best odds in the 2016 NHL Draft Lottery of picking 1st overall, somehow the hockey gods would frown on the Leafs once again and the Leafs would lose all three draft lotteries and drop to the 4th overall pick.

During the evening of Saturday April 30, 2016 the relief was palatable within Leafs Nation when the Leafs secured, at a minimum, a top-3 overall draft pick. As the card for the team which would be drafting 3rd overall was revealed, Leafs Nation was in a state of disbelief when it showed the logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets. With the turn of that card, the Leafs would secure no worse than the 2nd overall pick. Could it be coming true? Would the Leafs finally garner the favour of the hockey gods and manage to hold onto the 1st overall pick?  When Bill Daly finally revealed the logo of the team who would draft 1st overall and it was the blue maple leaf, Leafs Nation went absolutely wild - our luck had turned and we were going to be allowed to have something nice for our team, the right to draft Auston Matthews.

In the few days which have passed since that fateful Saturday night, there has been a low rumbling in Leafs Nation that the Leafs should look to trade that 1st overall pick or might not use it to draft Auston Matthews.

In life, we've all been told to never say never, but let me just say:

1. NEVER are the Leafs trading the 2016 1st overall pick
2. NEVER are the Leafs drafting anyone but Auston Matthews with the 2016 1st overall pick

OK, now that we have that piece of business taken care of, let's look at how the Leafs opening night roster for the 2016/2017 season could potentially be affected by the Leafs acquiring the 2016 1st overall pick, drafting Auston Matthews, and signing free-agent defenceman Nikita Zaitsev from the K.H.L.

Here’s a potential opening night roster for the Leafs for the 2016/2017 season:

Table 1

A quick explanation of what the headings in Table 1 mean.

Sh=Shoots (Left or Right), Left=Left Wing/Defence, Yrs=Years left on contract, Sts=Status, Centre=Centre/Goal, Right=Right Wing/Defence. The number in brackets after a player’s name is that player’s age.

Looking at Table 1 above leads to the observation of a couple of different developments.

Changes since the end of the 2015/2016 season

Here’s the Leafs’ roster which ended the 2015/2016 season:

Table 2

Notice there are 9 players whose status (Sts) is UFA or Unrestricted Free Agent. From this list of Unrestricted Free Agents:

1. Mark Arcobello
2. Brad Boyes
3. T.J. Brennan
4. Rich Clune
5. Michael Grabner
6. P.A. Parenteau
7. Ben Smith
8. Alex Stalock
9. Raffi Torres

It is assumed that only Mark Arcobello, T.J. Brennan, Rich Clune, and Ben Smith might return from the above list but only if they agree to be assigned to the Marlies to provide a veteran presence.

The Leafs might want to bring back P.A. Parenteau, but finding a roster spot for him to start the 2016/2017 season could prove challenging, especially if the Leafs decide to start the season with a younger lineup.

Notice there are 12 players whose status (Sts) is RFA or Restricted Free Agent. From this list of Restricted Free Agents:

1. Connor Carrick
2. Sam Carrick
3. Frank Corrado
4. Scott Harrington
5. Peter Holland
6. Nazem Kadri
7. Josh Leivo
8. Martin Marincin
9. Stuart Percy
10. Morgan Rielly
11. Colin Smith
12. Garret Sparks

It is assumed that the Leafs would like to qualify and re-sign everyone on this list and that work has already started with the signing of Nazem Kadri and Morgan Rielly to 6 year contracts.

As Garret Sparks is the only waiver eligible player from the above list of 12 for the upcoming 2016/2017 season, the following players are either going to be traded in the off-season, make the Leafs’ opening night roster, or be placed on waivers for assignment to the Marlies:

1. Connor Carrick
2. Sam Carrick
3. Frank Corrado
4. Scott Harrington
5. Peter Holland
6. Josh Leivo
7. Martin Marincin
8. Stuart Percy
9. Colin Smith

Based on their play in 2015/2016, Connor Carrick, Frank Corrado, Josh Leivo, and Martin Marincin likely make the Leafs’ opening night roster. 

If they are not traded during the off-season, Sam Carrick, Scott Harrington, Peter Holland, Stuart Percy, and Colin Smith will need to have exceptional training camps and make the Leafs opening night roster or risk being placed on waivers.  From this list, Sam Carrick and Colin Smith might clear waivers but most likely Stuart Percy does not, as he is only 22 years old.

The Leafs would likely try to find a spot for Scott Harrington and maybe Peter Holland but unless Matt Hunwick, in the case of Scott Harrington, or one of Colin Greening, Tyler Bozak, Milan Michalek, or Brooks Laich, in the case of Peter Holland, are traded in the off-season the chance either Scott Harrington or Peter Holland are on the Leafs’ opening night roster are rather slim. 

Finally, the Leafs have stated their intention to buy-out the contract of Jared Cowan.

Changes since the NHL 2016 Draft Lottery

A closer look at Table 1 above shows a number of interesting assumptions:

1.      Auston Matthews opens the season with the Leafs

2.      Nikita Zaitsev slots into the top 4 D

3.      Mitch Marner opens the season with the Leafs and now counts towards the 50 SPC limit

4.      Dermott, Nielsen, and Timashov are loaned back to their respective junior teams and do not count toward the 50 SPC limit

5.      Steven Stamkos is not included in this potential 2016/2017 season opening roster

Assuming the roster moves detailed above under the heading “Changes since the end of the 2015/2016 season” transpire as described and Dermott, Nielsen, and Timashov are loaned back to their respective junior teams, even with the addition of Matthews, Marner, and Zaitsev to their NHL lineup, the Leafs will potentially have used only 44 of their 50 SPC slots.  This would leave up to 6 SPC slots available for the Leafs to address some of their needs via trades or free-agent signings.

It is apparent there are a couple of areas where the Leafs depth in prospects is rather shallow.

1.      Goaltending

2.      Right-shot defencemen

Depending on how the 2016 Entry Draft plays out, the Leafs could be very busy participants in the 2016 off-season trade and free-agent markets.

In trying to address their two areas of weakness (Goaltending and Right-shot D-men), there are a few questions which could be asked:

  

1.      Should the Leafs try to land a No. 1 goalie this off-season or wait until next year’s off-season when teams will be scrambling ahead of the expansion draft?

2.      Should the Leafs try to land a potential top-pairing right-shot D-man to play with Morgan Rielly?

3.      Should the Leafs wade into the Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA) market and try to sign Steven Stamkos?

In my opinion, this coming off-season should see the Leafs exploring these markets:

1.      Available No. 1 goalies

2.      Available right-shooting potential top-pairing D-man

Assuming the Leafs choose to pursue a potential No. 1 goalie, they could target any of these names – Ilya Samsonov, Mackenzie Blackwood, Tristan Jarry or if they are looking for a more immediate fix, Frederik Andersen.

If the Leafs decide that Nikita Zaitsev might slot better as a 2^nd pairing defender, they could pursue a right-shooting potential top-pairing D-man to pair with Morgan Rielly. Names being mentioned as potentially available include Tyson Barrie, Sami Vatanen, and Jacob Trouba.

Whichever route they decide to pursue this coming off-season, the Leafs will be well positioned to wheel-and-deal their way to a much different team than the team which ended the 2015/2016 regular season.