Protected Draft Territory - Alternate Draft History for the Year 2012

In my previous article (How to Rectify the NHL Draft Lottery) I detailed a proposal on how to rectify what I see as the issues with the current NHL Draft Lottery. My proposal was to give each NHL team what I call a Protected Draft Territory or P.D.T.

In that previous article, I listed the initial misgivings I had with my proposal – that the NHL’s Canadian teams would be bestowed an unfair advantage because of their proximity to large amateur hockey leagues and that the NHL’s U.S. teams would be unfairly penalized because of their perceived lack of amateur hockey leagues in their vicinity. But as you will see in this article, the application of the P.D.T. to the year 2012 did not result in any discernible level of advantage or disadvantage.

At this point I’ll quickly rehash the three P.D.T. rules that I applied to the 2012 NHL Entry Draft:

1. A player’s birth place, not his last amateur hockey team before becoming eligible for the NHL Entry Draft, determined which P.D.T., if any, the player would be eligible for.

2. Where more than one NHL team shares a natural territory (such as a province or a state), how close a player’s birth place is to an NHL team determined which P.D.T. the player would be eligible for.

3. As each player was removed from the original entry draft because of designation under the P.D.T., the players below the removed player were moved up in the draft order. This seems rather arbitrary. But without any knowledge of what each team would have drafted had the player they originally drafted not been available, it seems like a fair compromise. So, for example, if the first player chosen in the original entry draft had been designated under the P.D.T., the second player chosen in the original entry draft was moved up to the first player chosen in the revised entry draft.

With 2012 shaping up to be another good year for talent in the Entry Draft, the application of the three simple rules above may have altered the history of the NHL as we know it. A few good players would have gone to different teams and helped build them into solid contenders and perhaps eventual Cup winning teams.

Table 1 below is actually two tables in one. The first six columns represent how the original NHL Entry Draft played out. The second six columns represent how a revised NHL Entry Draft might have transpired after the application of the P.D.T. rules.

Table 1.

Even though it is a relatively recent draft, there are more than a few recognizable names from the original 2012 Entry Draft. For example, Nail Yakupov, Ryan Murray, Alex Galchenyuk, Morgan Rielly, Mathew Dumba, Jacob Trouba, Filip Forsberg, Zemgus Girgensons, Cody Ceci, Tom Wilson, Tomas Hertl, Olli Maata, and Tanner Pearson.

Via designation of their P.D.T., the Maple Leafs would have been able to continue to solidify their depth and select another player who is turning out to be a serviceable NHL player – Tom Wilson.

With three of the top four original picks eligible for designation under the P.D.T., the picks in the revised draft would have been vastly different. For example, Nail Yakupov, Morgan Rielly, Mathew Dumba, Filip Forsberg, Zemgus Girgensons, Cody Ceci, Tomas Hertl, Olli Maata, and Tanner Pearson would have all been drafted by different teams.

By looking closely at Table 1 above, we can see the players in Table 2 below are the players from the first round of the draft who would have been eligible for designation under the P.D.T. rule and therefore would have started their careers with and played for different teams:

Table 2.

The casual fan, looking at the names from Table 2, would find the list to have less recognizable names than recognizable names but this is to be expected as this draft was very recent.

From that same list of names above, the one having the most interest for Maple Leafs fans would, of course, be Tom Wilson.

To re-iterate that the P.D.T. was not unfairly tilting the NHL landscape in favour of the Maple Leafs, 2012 would have turned out to be another year where the Maple Leafs would have been able to designate a good player via their P.D.T., but would have lost out on a very good player via the revised draft. In this case, Morgan Rielly.

As was the case for the revised Entry Drafts from the year 2000, the revised Entry Draft for 2012 provides many questions for endless speculation, discussion, and debate.