The 2017 Stanley Cup Final (SCF) has finally reached a conclusion
with the Pittsburgh Penguins defeating the Nashville Predators. Pittsburgh is the
first team in the cap-era to repeat as back-to-back champions and the first
team since the Detroit Red Wings in 1997 and 1998 to win back-to-back Stanley
Cups.
How is any of this relevant to the Toronto Maple Leafs?
Well, each of those teams, Nashville and Pittsburgh, accomplished getting to
the SCF in very different ways. With their number 1 centre (1C) sidelined with
injury, Nashville relied on a mostly unsung group of forwards backed up with an
extremely talented top-4 defence corp. While Pittsburgh, with their star defenceman
sidelined with injury, relied on a star-studded forward group backed by a
nondescript defence corp.
With the acquisition, prior to last season, of a number 1
goalie (Frederik Andersen) and the performance of the Leafs rookies last
season, it seems like the Leafs are pretty close to being set with their
goaltending and in their forward group with a potentially star-studded group.
Naturally, attention would then turn to the only other area the Leafs need to
address, their defence corp., and its’ perceived lack of a 1st or 2nd
pairing right-handed D-man (RHD) to play with the top-4 D-men the Leafs
currently have – Morgan Rielly, Jake Gardiner, and Nikita Zaitsev.
A cursory look through the defensive depth chart for the
Leafs shows that there is no one in the prospect pipeline who can fill that 1st
or 2nd pairing role next season. This means there are only two other
possible avenues for the Leafs to explore in an attempt to acquire that 1st
or 2nd pairing D-man – the Free Agent (FA) or trade markets.
This article won’t get into the options available in the
FA market as they have been covered here,
so that leaves the trade market.
The first step in venturing into the trade market is
determining who the Leafs might be prepared to trade. What do the Leafs have
that other teams might want? How about a large winger who scores somewhere
between 25-30 goals and 55-60 points year after year? Or how about a veteran
centre, good in the face-off circle, that can put up 15-20 goals and 45-50
points? What about a plethora of promising wingers patiently waiting in the
AHL, or the Leafs’ press box, for their opportunity to shine at the NHL level? Finally,
perhaps the Leafs might be prepared to part with their 1st round
pick, 17th overall, in this year’s NHL Entry Draft?
The trading of established veterans like JVR or Tyler
Bozak seems to be the most logical option, but the reality of that situation is
neither of those veterans in a one for one trade is going to land the Leafs a 1st
pairing RHD. Even packaging both JVR and Tyler Bozak together in a two for one
trade is not going to land the coveted 1st pairing RHD. Could either
of those players on their own land an established 2nd pairing RHD?
Not likely. How about a two for one trade, this time for that established 2nd
pairing RHD? The odds would have improved slightly but the Leafs would still
need to identify a team wanting a top-6 scoring winger (isn’t that every team?)
and a solid 3rd line centre, be willing to pay them a combined $8.45
million next year, be willing to sign both players to similar or larger
contracts after next season as both players are set to become Unrestricted Free
Agents (UFAs) at the end of next season, and be willing to trade an established
2nd pairing RHD from their roster. I’m not saying this scenario is
impossible, but the chances of this happening might only be slightly better than
finding a unicorn.
Looking at the plethora of wingers the Leafs have in the
AHL or junior, the simple truth of the matter is that in the Leafs’ pipeline
there is no prospect, or likely any combination of prospects that could be put
together to form a sufficient package that would acquire a 1st or 2nd
pairing RHD.
Would the Leafs’ 1st round pick in this year’s
NHL Entry Draft obtain a 1st or 2nd pairing RHD on its’
own? Not likely.
Could the Leafs package up their 1st round
draft pick, a prospect or two, and JVR and/or Tyler Bozak to acquire a 1st
pairing RHD? Again, not very likely.
Would the above package acquire a 2nd pairing
RHD? Very likely. Would that package be an extreme over-payment on the Leafs
part? Absolutely.
If the Leafs were to pay the price of the above package
to acquire that 2nd pairing RHD, not only would it create possibly
two holes (JVR and T. Bozak) in their current lineup, it could also potentially
cripple the Leafs ability to contend in the future by decimating the needed
prospect pipeline – in effect this trade could turn into an all-or-nothing
gamble on winning the Stanley Cup in the next couple years. Is this the kind of
gamble current Leafs management is prepared to take? Based on their previous
actions the answer would seem to be a resounding no.
OK then, what should the Leafs’ plan for the defence
corp. be this off-season?
First. Keep monitoring the trade market in case a 1st
or 2nd pairing RHD suddenly becomes available at a reasonable price.
This would include speaking with the Las Vegas Golden Knights after the
Expansion Draft has taken place.
Second. Fly in the face of conventional hockey wisdom,
which says to always draft the “Best Player Available” (BPA), by drafting a
“BPA” from the D-men in this year’s draft and patiently develop that D-man for
future deployment on the Leaf blue-line.
Third. Sign Matt Hunwick to another reasonable 1 year
contract as a depth or insurance option.
Fourth. Enter next season’s training camp with the idea
of your current D-men prospects (Dermott, Nielsen, Valiev) and the European
FA’s recently signed (Rosen and Borgman) battling it out to prove if anyone is
ready to assume a 1st or 2nd pairing position.
It’s not the sexiest or quickest way to plug a
hole in the Leafs defence corp., but it also doesn't create a hole or holes elsewhere in the Leafs’ roster.
There is something to be said for the
patient draft and develop approach when it comes to defencemen, especially
when looking at Nashville’s defence corp. and how their talented 1st and 2nd pairings helped Nashville to reach the SCF’s.